Esbjerg 3–0 Kolding IF: Result & Stats

Esbjerg

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kolding IF

J. Kolawole 87'

J. Lucena 78'

M. Brajanac 22'

5/9/2026

1. Division · Promotion Group - 29Blue Water Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Esbjerg40%

×Draw26%

Kolding IF34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsbjergExpected goals in this matchKolding IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.25

Esbjerg

1.40

Kolding IF

1.25

Esbjerg creates 12% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 81 away

1.45

creates per match

1.16

1.34

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Esbjerg

1.45

Kolding IF

1.16

allows per match

Esbjerg

1.34

Kolding IF

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esbjerg+0.00on par

Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esbjerg ↓

Kolding IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Esbjerg or draw

66%

Esbjerg or Kolding IF

74%

Draw or Kolding IF

60%

Winning margin

Esbjerg wins by 2+

19%

Kolding IF wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Esbjerg 1+ goals

75%

Esbjerg 2+ goals

41%

Esbjerg 3+ goals

17%

Kolding IF 1+ goals

71%

Kolding IF 2+ goals

36%

Kolding IF 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Esbjerg (draw refunded)

55%

Kolding IF (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esbjerg at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esbjerg attack 1.45 + Kolding IF defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kolding IF attack 1.16 + Esbjerg defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Esbjerg scores more

40%

level

26%

Kolding IF scores more

34%

Esbjerg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

22'

43'

49'

56'

A. Skipper← A. Sonderskov

65'

J. Kolawole← L. Vigen

70'

J. Alfaro←

70'

J. Adjei-Broni← F. Lesniak

75'

W. Renecke← J. Foss

75'

J. Lucena← M. Hansen

78'

J. Lucena↳ J. Kolawole

87'

J. Kolawole↳ L. From

88'

A. Arshad← M. Ingebrigtsen

Esbjerg

Kolding

28

Danko

44

Texel

6

▼

2

3

24

4

▼

Lesniak

19

Hollsberg

7

▼

22

18

21

4

15

▼

Sondersko

5

▼

19

8

12

6

▼

Vigen

18

▼

Hansen

7

A

From

80

⚽

Brajanac

Manager: Sancheev Manoharan

56'▲A. Skipper←▼A. Sonderskov

65'▲J. Kolawole←▼L. Vigen

75'▲W. Renecke←▼J. Foss

75'▲J. Lucena←▼M. Hansen

Esbjerg substitutes

16Kristensen3Skipper25Renecke27Baldursson40Larsen22Hvidt14Kolawole17Lucena31Bennedsgaard

Manager: Jonas Kamper

20'▲F. Moller←▼N. Nedic

70'▲J. Alfaro←▼—

70'▲J. Adjei-Broni←▼F. Lesniak

88'▲A. Arshad←▼M. Ingebrigtsen

Kolding IF substitutes

1Trefil8Alfaro30Voufack12Moller11Arshad25Bossen16Adjei-Broni77Nielsen