Esbjerg 4–4 Kolding IF: Result & Stats

Esbjerg

FT

4 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Kolding IF

Unknown 89', 47'

M. Brajanac 43'

Unknown 77', 59', 55', 28'

1/17/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Esbjerg41%

×Draw24%

Kolding IF36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsbjergExpected goals in this matchKolding IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.52

Esbjerg

1.64

Kolding IF

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.85

creates per match

1.50

1.54

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Esbjerg

1.85

Kolding IF

1.50

allows per match

Esbjerg

1.54

Kolding IF

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esbjerg+0.00on par

Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esbjerg ↓

Kolding IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Esbjerg or draw

64%

Esbjerg or Kolding IF

76%

Draw or Kolding IF

59%

Winning margin

Esbjerg wins by 2+

21%

Kolding IF wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Esbjerg 1+ goals

81%

Esbjerg 2+ goals

49%

Esbjerg 3+ goals

23%

Kolding IF 1+ goals

78%

Kolding IF 2+ goals

45%

Kolding IF 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Esbjerg (draw refunded)

53%

Kolding IF (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esbjerg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esbjerg attack 1.85 + Kolding IF defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.64

Kolding IF attack 1.50 + Esbjerg defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Esbjerg scores more

41%

level

24%

Kolding IF scores more

36%

Esbjerg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

28'

43'

M. Brajanac

47'

55'

59'

77'

85'

89'

90+2'

Esbjerg

Kolding

28

44

33

3

30

23

4

24

25

18

13

3

11

12

15

16

18

35

32

39

40

80

⚽

Brajanac

Manager: Sancheev Manoharan

Esbjerg substitutes

2Buus4Tjornelund5Troelsen6Vigen8Maden14Kolawole17Lucena21McCrorie27Baldursson36Kristiansen37Jensen38Kruse

Manager: Albert Rude

Match Recap: Esbjerg vs Kolding IF

Esbjerg and Kolding IF drew 4-4 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2026.

Goals: ? (28', 47', 55', 59', 77', 89'), M. Brajanac (43').

Esbjerg vs Kolding IF — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Esbjerg vs Kolding IF