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Esbjerg vs Kolding IF — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Esbjerg
Esbjerg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kolding IF
Kolding IF
I. O. Olafsson 67'
N. Jakobsen 62'
S. Denius 69'
10/23/20222nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 12Blue Water Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Esbjerg46%
×Draw23%
Kolding IF31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esbjerg
1.78
Kolding IF
1.42

Esbjerg creates 25% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

creates per match

Esbjerg
2.71
Kolding IF
1.73

allows per match

Esbjerg
1.10
Kolding IF
0.85

finishing

Esbjerg+0.00on par
Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esbjerg ↓

Kolding IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Esbjerg or draw
69%
Esbjerg or Kolding IF
77%
Draw or Kolding IF
54%

Winning margin

Esbjerg wins by 2+
25%
Kolding IF wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Esbjerg 1+ goals
83%
Esbjerg 2+ goals
53%
Esbjerg 3+ goals
26%
Kolding IF 1+ goals
76%
Kolding IF 2+ goals
41%
Kolding IF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Esbjerg (draw refunded)
60%
Kolding IF (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esbjerg at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esbjerg attack 2.71 + Kolding IF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.78

Kolding IF attack 1.73 + Esbjerg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Esbjerg scores more
46%
level
23%
Kolding IF scores more
31%

Esbjerg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'
N. Jakobsen
67'
I. O. Olafsson
69'
S. Denius

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Esbjerg 2–1 Kolding IF

Esbjerg beat Kolding IF 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 23, 2022.

Goals: N. Jakobsen (62'), I. O. Olafsson (67'), S. Denius (69').

The match was played at Blue Water Arena in Esbjerg.