Esan Pattaya 1–2 Ayutthaya FC: Result & Stats

Esan Pattaya

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ayutthaya FC

3/2/2024

Thai League 2 · Round 27Nong Prue Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Esan Pattaya40%

×Draw26%

Ayutthaya FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esan PattayaExpected goals in this matchAyutthaya FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.23

Esan Pattaya

1.35

Ayutthaya FC

1.23

Esan Pattaya creates 10% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 101 away

1.32

creates per match

1.25

1.20

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Esan Pattaya

1.32

Ayutthaya FC

1.25

allows per match

Esan Pattaya

1.20

Ayutthaya FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esan Pattaya ↓

Ayutthaya FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Esan Pattaya or draw

66%

Esan Pattaya or Ayutthaya FC

74%

Draw or Ayutthaya FC

60%

Winning margin

Esan Pattaya wins by 2+

18%

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Esan Pattaya 1+ goals

74%

Esan Pattaya 2+ goals

39%

Esan Pattaya 3+ goals

15%

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals

71%

Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals

35%

Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)

54%

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esan Pattaya at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esan Pattaya attack 1.32 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Esan Pattaya scores more

40%

level

26%

Ayutthaya FC scores more

34%

Esan Pattaya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Esan Pattaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff