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Ayutthaya FC vs Esan Pattaya — Thai League 2 2018

Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Esan Pattaya
Esan Pattaya
11/4/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 11Ayutthaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ayutthaya FC42%
×Draw26%
Esan Pattaya31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayutthaya FC
1.41
Esan Pattaya
1.18

Ayutthaya FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 51 away

creates per match

Ayutthaya FC
1.54
Esan Pattaya
1.10

allows per match

Ayutthaya FC
1.26
Esan Pattaya
1.27

finishing

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par
Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayutthaya FC ↓

Esan Pattaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ayutthaya FC or draw
69%
Ayutthaya FC or Esan Pattaya
74%
Draw or Esan Pattaya
58%

Winning margin

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
20%
Esan Pattaya wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
76%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
41%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
17%
Esan Pattaya 1+ goals
69%
Esan Pattaya 2+ goals
33%
Esan Pattaya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
57%
Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayutthaya FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 103 matches

Esan Pattaya away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.54 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

Esan Pattaya attack 1.10 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ayutthaya FC scores more
42%
level
26%
Esan Pattaya scores more
31%

Ayutthaya FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ayutthaya FC vs Esan Pattaya

Ayutthaya FC beat Esan Pattaya 3-0 in Thai League 2 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Ayutthaya Stadium in Ayutthaya.