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Esae vs Dynamo Unacob — Championnat National 2019

Esae
Esae
FT
1 – 0
Dynamo Unacob
Dynamo Unacob
11/24/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 6Stade de Sakété

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Esae52%
×Draw28%
Dynamo Unacob20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esae
1.35
Dynamo Unacob
0.71

Esae creates 90% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 87 away

creates per match

Esae
1.18
Dynamo Unacob
0.82

allows per match

Esae
0.61
Dynamo Unacob
1.52

finishing

Esae+0.00on par
Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esae ↓

Dynamo Unacob →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Esae or draw
80%
Esae or Dynamo Unacob
72%
Draw or Dynamo Unacob
48%

Winning margin

Esae wins by 2+
25%
Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Esae 1+ goals
74%
Esae 2+ goals
39%
Esae 3+ goals
15%
Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals
51%
Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals
16%
Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Esae (draw refunded)
73%
Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esae at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.61 · 33 matches

Dynamo Unacob away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esae attack 1.18 + Dynamo Unacob defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.82 + Esae defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Esae scores more
52%
level
28%
Dynamo Unacob scores more
20%

Esae at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Esae will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esae vs Dynamo Unacob

Esae beat Dynamo Unacob 1-0 in Championnat National on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de Sakété in Sakété.