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Dynamo Unacob vs Esae — Championnat National 2019

Dynamo Unacob
Dynamo Unacob
FT
0 – 4
Esae
Esae
6/30/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 18Stade Omnisports Paulin Tomanaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dynamo Unacob32%
×Draw31%
Esae37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Unacob
0.92
Esae
1.02

Esae creates 11% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 32 away

creates per match

Dynamo Unacob
0.92
Esae
1.22

allows per match

Dynamo Unacob
0.81
Esae
0.91

finishing

Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par
Esae+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Unacob ↓

Esae →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dynamo Unacob or draw
63%
Dynamo Unacob or Esae
69%
Draw or Esae
68%

Winning margin

Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+
11%
Esae wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals
60%
Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals
23%
Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals
7%
Esae 1+ goals
64%
Esae 2+ goals
27%
Esae 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)
46%
Esae (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Unacob at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.81 · 85 matches

Esae away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.92 + Esae defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.92

Esae attack 1.22 + Dynamo Unacob defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dynamo Unacob scores more
32%
level
31%
Esae scores more
37%

Esae at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Esae will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Unacob vs Esae

Esae beat Dynamo Unacob 4-0 in Championnat National on June 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Paulin Tomanaga in Bohicon.