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Esae vs Dynamo Abomey — Championnat National 2019

Esae
Esae
FT
0 – 0
Dynamo Abomey
Dynamo Abomey
12/1/2018Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 5Stade de Sakété (Sakété)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Esae45%
×Draw31%
Dynamo Abomey24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esae
1.15
Dynamo Abomey
0.76

Esae creates 51% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 109 away

creates per match

Esae
1.18
Dynamo Abomey
0.90

allows per match

Esae
0.61
Dynamo Abomey
1.13

finishing

Esae+0.00on par
Dynamo Abomey+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esae ↓

Dynamo Abomey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Esae or draw
76%
Esae or Dynamo Abomey
69%
Draw or Dynamo Abomey
55%

Winning margin

Esae wins by 2+
19%
Dynamo Abomey wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Esae 1+ goals
68%
Esae 2+ goals
32%
Esae 3+ goals
11%
Dynamo Abomey 1+ goals
53%
Dynamo Abomey 2+ goals
18%
Dynamo Abomey 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Esae (draw refunded)
65%
Dynamo Abomey (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esae at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.61 · 33 matches

Dynamo Abomey away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.13 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esae attack 1.18 + Dynamo Abomey defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Dynamo Abomey attack 0.90 + Esae defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Esae scores more
45%
level
31%
Dynamo Abomey scores more
24%

Esae at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Esae will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esae vs Dynamo Abomey

Esae and Dynamo Abomey drew 0-0 in Championnat National on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Stade de Sakété (Sakété).