Esae 1–1 Dynamo Abomey: Result & Stats

Esae

FT

1 – 1

Dynamo Abomey

3/10/2021

Championnat National · Round 9Stade de Lokossa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Esae46%

×Draw31%

Dynamo Abomey23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsaeExpected goals in this matchDynamo Abomey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.74

Esae

1.16

Dynamo Abomey

0.74

Esae creates 57% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 109 away

1.19

creates per match

0.90

0.59

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Esae

1.19

Dynamo Abomey

0.90

allows per match

Esae

0.59

Dynamo Abomey

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esae+0.00on par

Dynamo Abomey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esae ↓

Dynamo Abomey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Esae or draw

77%

Esae or Dynamo Abomey

69%

Draw or Dynamo Abomey

54%

Winning margin

Esae wins by 2+

20%

Dynamo Abomey wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Esae 1+ goals

69%

Esae 2+ goals

32%

Esae 3+ goals

11%

Dynamo Abomey 1+ goals

52%

Dynamo Abomey 2+ goals

17%

Dynamo Abomey 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Esae (draw refunded)

66%

Dynamo Abomey (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esae at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.59 · 32 matches

Dynamo Abomey away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.13 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esae attack 1.19 + Dynamo Abomey defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.16

Dynamo Abomey attack 0.90 + Esae defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Esae scores more

46%

level

31%

Dynamo Abomey scores more

23%

Esae at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Esae will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff