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ES Zarzis vs SS Sfaxien — Cup 2019

ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
SS Sfaxien
SS Sfaxien
1/15/2023CupCup · Qualifying RoundComplexe Sportif Abdessalem Kazouz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

ES Zarzis38%
×Draw28%
SS Sfaxien33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Zarzis
1.20
SS Sfaxien
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

ES Zarzis
1.00
SS Sfaxien
0.80

allows per match

ES Zarzis
1.40
SS Sfaxien
1.40

finishing

ES Zarzis+0.00on par
SS Sfaxien+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Zarzis ↓

SS Sfaxien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

ES Zarzis or draw
67%
ES Zarzis or SS Sfaxien
72%
Draw or SS Sfaxien
62%

Winning margin

ES Zarzis wins by 2+
16%
SS Sfaxien wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ES Zarzis 1+ goals
70%
ES Zarzis 2+ goals
34%
ES Zarzis 3+ goals
12%
SS Sfaxien 1+ goals
67%
SS Sfaxien 2+ goals
30%
SS Sfaxien 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

ES Zarzis (draw refunded)
53%
SS Sfaxien (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Zarzis at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

SS Sfaxien away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Zarzis attack 1.00 + SS Sfaxien defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

SS Sfaxien attack 0.80 + ES Zarzis defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

ES Zarzis scores more
38%
level
28%
SS Sfaxien scores more
33%

ES Zarzis at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "ES Zarzis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ES Zarzis vs SS Sfaxien

SS Sfaxien beat ES Zarzis 3-2 in Cup on January 15, 2023.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Abdessalem Kazouz in Zarzis.