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ES Zarzis vs SS Sfaxien — Ligue 2 2020

ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SS Sfaxien
SS Sfaxien
10/23/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 1Complexe Sportif Abdessalem Kazouz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

ES Zarzis70%
×Draw21%
SS Sfaxien9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Zarzis
1.83
SS Sfaxien
0.47

ES Zarzis creates 289% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 22 away

creates per match

ES Zarzis
2.03
SS Sfaxien
0.59

allows per match

ES Zarzis
0.35
SS Sfaxien
1.64

finishing

ES Zarzis+0.00on par
SS Sfaxien+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Zarzis ↓

SS Sfaxien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

ES Zarzis or draw
91%
ES Zarzis or SS Sfaxien
79%
Draw or SS Sfaxien
30%

Winning margin

ES Zarzis wins by 2+
43%
SS Sfaxien wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

ES Zarzis 1+ goals
84%
ES Zarzis 2+ goals
54%
ES Zarzis 3+ goals
28%
SS Sfaxien 1+ goals
37%
SS Sfaxien 2+ goals
8%
SS Sfaxien 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

ES Zarzis (draw refunded)
89%
SS Sfaxien (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Zarzis at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.35 · 31 matches

SS Sfaxien away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Zarzis attack 2.03 + SS Sfaxien defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.83

SS Sfaxien attack 0.59 + ES Zarzis defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

ES Zarzis scores more
70%
level
21%
SS Sfaxien scores more
9%

ES Zarzis at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "ES Zarzis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: ES Zarzis 4–0 SS Sfaxien

ES Zarzis beat SS Sfaxien 4-0 in Ligue 2 on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Abdessalem Kazouz in Zarzis.