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Erzurumspor FK vs Bursaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bursaspor
Bursaspor
12/4/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundKazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Erzurumspor FK46%
×Draw22%
Bursaspor32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzurumspor FK
1.93
Bursaspor
1.60

Erzurumspor FK creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK
2.43
Bursaspor
1.57

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK
1.64
Bursaspor
1.43

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par
Bursaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Bursaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw
68%
Erzurumspor FK or Bursaspor
78%
Draw or Bursaspor
54%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
25%
Bursaspor wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
85%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
57%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
30%
Bursaspor 1+ goals
80%
Bursaspor 2+ goals
47%
Bursaspor 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
58%
Bursaspor (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Bursaspor away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 2.43 + Bursaspor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.93

Bursaspor attack 1.57 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more
46%
level
22%
Bursaspor scores more
32%

Erzurumspor FK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erzurumspor FK vs Bursaspor

Erzurumspor FK beat Bursaspor 4-2 in Türkiye Kupası on December 4, 2019.

The match was played at Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu in Erzurum.