Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bursaspor vs Erzurumspor FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Bursaspor
Bursaspor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
12/19/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundBursa Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bursaspor75%
×Draw14%
Erzurumspor FK11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bursaspor
2.96
Erzurumspor FK
1.06

Bursaspor creates 179% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bursaspor
2.50
Erzurumspor FK
1.00

allows per match

Bursaspor
1.13
Erzurumspor FK
3.43

finishing

Bursaspor+0.00on par
Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bursaspor ↓

Erzurumspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Bursaspor or draw
89%
Bursaspor or Erzurumspor FK
86%
Draw or Erzurumspor FK
25%

Winning margin

Bursaspor wins by 2+
55%
Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bursaspor 1+ goals
95%
Bursaspor 2+ goals
79%
Bursaspor 3+ goals
55%
Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
65%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
29%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bursaspor (draw refunded)
87%
Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bursaspor at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bursaspor attack 2.50 + Erzurumspor FK defence 3.43 → ÷2 → 2.96

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.00 + Bursaspor defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Bursaspor scores more
75%
level
14%
Erzurumspor FK scores more
11%

Bursaspor at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Bursaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Bursaspor 2–1 Erzurumspor FK

Bursaspor beat Erzurumspor FK 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 19, 2019.

The match was played at Bursa Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Bursa.