Erzurumspor FK 2–2 Bodrum FK: Result & Stats

Erzurumspor FK

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bodrum FK

E. Tozlu 83'

M. Yumlu 8'

M. Mohammed 47'

Fredy 42'

12/14/2025

1. Lig · Round 17Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Erzurumspor FK42%

×Draw27%

Bodrum FK31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzurumspor FKExpected goals in this matchBodrum FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.11

Erzurumspor FK

1.35

Bodrum FK

1.11

Erzurumspor FK creates 22% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 57 away

1.64

creates per match

1.28

0.94

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK

1.64

Bodrum FK

1.28

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK

0.94

Bodrum FK

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Bodrum FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw

69%

Erzurumspor FK or Bodrum FK

73%

Draw or Bodrum FK

58%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

20%

Bodrum FK wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

74%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

39%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

15%

Bodrum FK 1+ goals

67%

Bodrum FK 2+ goals

30%

Bodrum FK 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

58%

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Bodrum FK away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.64 + Bodrum FK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bodrum FK attack 1.28 + Erzurumspor FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more

42%

level

27%

Bodrum FK scores more

31%

Erzurumspor FK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

M. Mohammed

Bodrum FK · M

8.2

Match Events

8'

M. Yumlu

10'

Mustafa YumluGoal confirmed

28'

36'

42'

42'

45+3'

47'

M. Mohammed↳ A. Aslan

63'

C. Sylla← B. Keser

72'

A. Kabak← G. Crociata

79'

Y. Kirtay← S. Akgun

83'

E. Tozlu↳ A. Kabak

86'

Eren Tozlu

87'

Z. Dimitrov← P. Brazao

87'

I. Tarim← A. Aslan

90+3'

A. Turk← T. Seferi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ErzurumsporBodrum

Overview

56%Possession44%

21Total Shots10

1.69Expected Goals (xG)1.01

9Corners1

15Fouls11

Shots

21Total Shots10

6On Target4

8Off Target6

7Blocked0

16Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

429Total Passes353

357Accurate Passes285

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3