Bodrum FK 1–1 Erzurumspor FK: Result & Stats

Bodrum FK

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Erzurumspor FK

A. Habesoglu 55'

M. Fettahoglu 4'

4/19/2026

1. Lig · Round 36Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Bodrum FK50%

×Draw27%

Erzurumspor FK24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodrum FKExpected goals in this matchErzurumspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.91

Bodrum FK

1.45

Erzurumspor FK

0.91

Bodrum FK creates 59% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 109 away

1.83

creates per match

1.15

0.66

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Bodrum FK

1.83

Erzurumspor FK

1.15

allows per match

Bodrum FK

0.66

Erzurumspor FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodrum FK ↓

Erzurumspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bodrum FK or draw

76%

Bodrum FK or Erzurumspor FK

73%

Draw or Erzurumspor FK

50%

Winning margin

Bodrum FK wins by 2+

25%

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bodrum FK 1+ goals

77%

Bodrum FK 2+ goals

42%

Bodrum FK 3+ goals

18%

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

60%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

23%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)

68%

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodrum FK at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.66 · 59 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodrum FK attack 1.83 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.45

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.15 + Bodrum FK defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bodrum FK scores more

50%

level

27%

Erzurumspor FK scores more

24%

Bodrum FK at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bodrum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. F. Nogueira Sousa

Bodrum FK · G

7.9

Match Events

4'

30'

38'

55'

69'

72'

73'

77'

A. Kabak← M. Rodriguez

78'

Fernando Andrade← B. Keser

84'

M. Yilmaz← O. Imeri

84'

G. Bayrakdar← T. Seferi

85'

Erkan Anapa

86'

Eren Tozlu

86'

H. Yener← M. Fettahoglu

86'

C. Sylla← E. Tozlu

89'

M. Erdilman← A. Aslan

89'

O. Kara← G. Crociata

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BodrumErzurumspor

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots3

7Corners0

13Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots3

3On Target3

5Off Target0

3Blocked0

9Inside Box2

2Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

425Total Passes350

356Accurate Passes281

84%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls17

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1