Erzurumspor FK 3–1 Bodrum FK: Result & Stats

Erzurumspor FK

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Bodrum FK

10/30/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundKazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Erzurumspor FK43%

×Draw21%

Bodrum FK36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzurumspor FKExpected goals in this matchBodrum FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.82

Erzurumspor FK

2.02

Bodrum FK

1.82

Erzurumspor FK creates 11% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

2.43

creates per match

2.00

1.64

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK

2.43

Bodrum FK

2.00

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK

1.64

Bodrum FK

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Bodrum FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw

64%

Erzurumspor FK or Bodrum FK

79%

Draw or Bodrum FK

57%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

24%

Bodrum FK wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

87%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

60%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

33%

Bodrum FK 1+ goals

84%

Bodrum FK 2+ goals

54%

Bodrum FK 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

55%

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Bodrum FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 2.43 + Bodrum FK defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.02

Bodrum FK attack 2.00 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more

43%

level

21%

Bodrum FK scores more

36%

Erzurumspor FK at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff