Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Erzurumspor FK vs Beykoz Anadolu — 1. Lig 2018

Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Beykoz Anadolu
Beykoz Anadolu
4/20/20221. Lig1. Lig · Round 33Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Erzurumspor FK49%
×Draw25%
Beykoz Anadolu25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzurumspor FK
1.55
Beykoz Anadolu
1.03

Erzurumspor FK creates 50% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 69 away

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK
1.64
Beykoz Anadolu
1.13

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK
0.94
Beykoz Anadolu
1.46

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par
Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Beykoz Anadolu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw
75%
Erzurumspor FK or Beykoz Anadolu
75%
Draw or Beykoz Anadolu
51%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
25%
Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
79%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
46%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
20%
Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals
64%
Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals
28%
Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
66%
Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Beykoz Anadolu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.46 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.64 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.55

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.13 + Erzurumspor FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more
49%
level
25%
Beykoz Anadolu scores more
25%

Erzurumspor FK at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Erzurumspor FK 1–1 Beykoz Anadolu

Erzurumspor FK and Beykoz Anadolu drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu in Erzurum.