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Beykoz Anadolu vs Erzurumspor FK — 1. Lig 2018

Beykoz Anadolu
Beykoz Anadolu
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
9/3/20221. Lig1. Lig · Round 415 Temmuz Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Beykoz Anadolu34%
×Draw28%
Erzurumspor FK39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beykoz Anadolu
1.15
Erzurumspor FK
1.26

Erzurumspor FK creates 10% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 110 away

creates per match

Beykoz Anadolu
1.24
Erzurumspor FK
1.16

allows per match

Beykoz Anadolu
1.36
Erzurumspor FK
1.06

finishing

Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par
Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beykoz Anadolu ↓

Erzurumspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Beykoz Anadolu or draw
61%
Beykoz Anadolu or Erzurumspor FK
72%
Draw or Erzurumspor FK
66%

Winning margin

Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+
14%
Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals
68%
Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals
32%
Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals
11%
Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
72%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
36%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)
46%
Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beykoz Anadolu at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.36 · 70 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.24 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.15

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.16 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Beykoz Anadolu scores more
34%
level
28%
Erzurumspor FK scores more
39%

Erzurumspor FK at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Beykoz Anadolu 4–1 Erzurumspor FK

Beykoz Anadolu beat Erzurumspor FK 4-1 in 1. Lig on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at 15 Temmuz Stadı in İstanbul.