Erzurumspor FK 2–0 Bandırmaspor: Result & Stats

Erzurumspor FK

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bandırmaspor

F. Özhan 86'

M. Yumlu 81'

1/18/2025

1. Lig · Round 20Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Erzurumspor FK46%

×Draw26%

Bandırmaspor28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzurumspor FKExpected goals in this matchBandırmaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.10

Erzurumspor FK

1.48

Bandırmaspor

1.10

Erzurumspor FK creates 35% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 110 away

1.64

creates per match

1.27

0.94

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK

1.64

Bandırmaspor

1.27

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK

0.94

Bandırmaspor

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Bandırmaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw

72%

Erzurumspor FK or Bandırmaspor

74%

Draw or Bandırmaspor

54%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

23%

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

77%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

43%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

19%

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

67%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

30%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

62%

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.64 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bandırmaspor attack 1.27 + Erzurumspor FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more

46%

level

26%

Bandırmaspor scores more

28%

Erzurumspor FK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

M. Yumlu

Erzurumspor FK · D

7.9

Match Events

27'

38'

63'

64'

64'

64'

64'

74'

M. Louzif← R. Berişbek

74'

Paulinho← Marco Paixão

78'

C. Diniyev← M. Özcan

81'

M. Yumlu↳ O. Ovacıklı

82'

85'

86'

90+7'

90+13'

PaulinhoMissed penalty

90+11'

Atınç NukanPenalty confirmed

90+5'

Ö. Sert← T. Teklić

90+1'

S. Sarıkaya← K. Kılınç

90+1'

Y. Kırtay← O. Ovacıklı

90+5'

S. Koç← S. Akgün

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ErzurumsporBandırmaspor

Overview

46%Possession54%

18Total Shots5

3Corners2

20Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots5

6On Target1

9Off Target2

3Blocked2

12Inside Box2

6Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

257Total Passes300

156Accurate Passes188

61%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls10

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Erzurumspor FK vs Bandırmaspor

Erzurumspor FK beat Bandırmaspor 2-0 in 1. Lig on January 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Yumlu (81'), F. Özhan (86').

Bandırmaspor controlled possession (54%) and registered 5 shots to 18.

The match was played at Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu in Erzurum.

Erzurumspor FK vs Bandırmaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Erzurumspor FK vs Bandırmaspor