Bandırmaspor 3–2 Erzurumspor FK: Result & Stats

Bandırmaspor

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Erzurumspor FK

Paulinho 82', 54'

Marco Paixão 71'

E. Tozlu 69' (pen), 59'

8/11/2024

1. Lig · Round 1Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Bandırmaspor41%

×Draw28%

Erzurumspor FK31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BandırmasporExpected goals in this matchErzurumspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.10

Bandırmaspor

1.30

Erzurumspor FK

1.10

Bandırmaspor creates 18% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 110 away

1.54

creates per match

1.16

1.05

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Bandırmaspor

1.54

Erzurumspor FK

1.16

allows per match

Bandırmaspor

1.05

Erzurumspor FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

Erzurumspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw

69%

Bandırmaspor or Erzurumspor FK

72%

Draw or Erzurumspor FK

59%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

19%

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

73%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

37%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

14%

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

67%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

30%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

57%

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 1.54 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.30

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.16 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more

41%

level

28%

Erzurumspor FK scores more

31%

Bandırmaspor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Paulinho

Bandırmaspor · F

8.3

Match Events

54'

Paulinho

58'

Muhammed Furkan Özhan

59'

E. Tozlu↳ M. Yumlu

66'

Eren TozluPenalty confirmed

68'

Atınç Nukan

69'

E. TozluPenalty

70'

C. Diniyev← K. Kesgin

70'

Marco Paixão← A. Diakhaby

71'

Marco Paixão↳ F. Genç

73'

75'

79'

81'

82'

83'

85'

87'

87'

90'

E. Adıgüzel← Paulinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BandırmasporErzurumspor

Overview

62%Possession38%

11Total Shots7

4Corners6

7Fouls21

Shots

11Total Shots7

6On Target3

4Off Target2

1Blocked2

7Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

411Total Passes232

314Accurate Passes145

76%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls21

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

3Offsides0