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Erzurumspor FK vs Bandırmaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
8/29/20211. Lig1. Lig · Round 3Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Erzurumspor FK57%
×Draw23%
Bandırmaspor20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzurumspor FK
1.78
Bandırmaspor
0.96

Erzurumspor FK creates 85% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK
2.08
Bandırmaspor
1.30

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK
0.61
Bandırmaspor
1.48

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+1.47scores more
Bandırmaspor-0.30scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Bandırmaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw
80%
Erzurumspor FK or Bandırmaspor
77%
Draw or Bandırmaspor
43%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
32%
Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
83%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
53%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
26%
Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
62%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
25%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
74%
Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.61 · 11 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.48 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 2.08 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.78

Bandırmaspor attack 1.30 + Erzurumspor FK defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more
57%
level
23%
Bandırmaspor scores more
20%

Erzurumspor FK at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erzurumspor FK vs Bandırmaspor

Erzurumspor FK beat Bandırmaspor 1-0 in 1. Lig on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu in Erzurum.