Erzurumspor FK 2–1 Balıkesirspor: Result & Stats

Erzurumspor FK

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Balıkesirspor

10/31/2021

1. Lig · Round 11Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Erzurumspor FK55%

×Draw25%

Balıkesirspor20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzurumspor FKExpected goals in this matchBalıkesirspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.86

Erzurumspor FK

1.59

Balıkesirspor

0.86

Erzurumspor FK creates 85% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 69 away

1.64

creates per match

0.78

0.94

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK

1.64

Balıkesirspor

0.78

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK

0.94

Balıkesirspor

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Balıkesirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Balıkesirspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw

80%

Erzurumspor FK or Balıkesirspor

75%

Draw or Balıkesirspor

45%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

29%

Balıkesirspor wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

80%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

47%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

21%

Balıkesirspor 1+ goals

58%

Balıkesirspor 2+ goals

21%

Balıkesirspor 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

73%

Balıkesirspor (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Balıkesirspor away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.54 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.64 + Balıkesirspor defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.59

Balıkesirspor attack 0.78 + Erzurumspor FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more

55%

level

25%

Balıkesirspor scores more

20%

Erzurumspor FK at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff