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Balıkesirspor vs Erzurumspor FK — 1. Lig 2018

Balıkesirspor
Balıkesirspor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
8/24/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 2Balıkesir Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Balıkesirspor29%
×Draw26%
Erzurumspor FK45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balıkesirspor
1.10
Erzurumspor FK
1.43

Erzurumspor FK creates 30% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 110 away

creates per match

Balıkesirspor
1.14
Erzurumspor FK
1.16

allows per match

Balıkesirspor
1.70
Erzurumspor FK
1.06

finishing

Balıkesirspor+0.00on par
Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balıkesirspor ↓

Erzurumspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Balıkesirspor or draw
55%
Balıkesirspor or Erzurumspor FK
74%
Draw or Erzurumspor FK
71%

Winning margin

Balıkesirspor wins by 2+
11%
Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Balıkesirspor 1+ goals
67%
Balıkesirspor 2+ goals
30%
Balıkesirspor 3+ goals
10%
Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
76%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
42%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Balıkesirspor (draw refunded)
39%
Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balıkesirspor at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 69 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balıkesirspor attack 1.14 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.16 + Balıkesirspor defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Balıkesirspor scores more
29%
level
26%
Erzurumspor FK scores more
45%

Erzurumspor FK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balıkesirspor vs Erzurumspor FK

Balıkesirspor beat Erzurumspor FK 2-1 in 1. Lig on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Balıkesir Atatürk Stadyumu in Balıkesir.