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Erzgebirge Aue U19 vs Energie Cottbus U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Erzgebirge Aue U19
Erzgebirge Aue U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Energie Cottbus U19
Energie Cottbus U19
12/6/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 14Erzgebirgsstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Erzgebirge Aue U1949%
×Draw22%
Energie Cottbus U1930%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzgebirge Aue U19
2.02
Energie Cottbus U19
1.54

Erzgebirge Aue U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 57 away

creates per match

Erzgebirge Aue U19
1.85
Energie Cottbus U19
1.44

allows per match

Erzgebirge Aue U19
1.65
Energie Cottbus U19
2.19

finishing

Erzgebirge Aue U19+0.00on par
Energie Cottbus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzgebirge Aue U19 ↓

Energie Cottbus U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Erzgebirge Aue U19 or draw
70%
Erzgebirge Aue U19 or Energie Cottbus U19
78%
Draw or Energie Cottbus U19
51%

Winning margin

Erzgebirge Aue U19 wins by 2+
28%
Energie Cottbus U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Erzgebirge Aue U19 1+ goals
87%
Erzgebirge Aue U19 2+ goals
60%
Erzgebirge Aue U19 3+ goals
33%
Energie Cottbus U19 1+ goals
79%
Energie Cottbus U19 2+ goals
45%
Energie Cottbus U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Erzgebirge Aue U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Energie Cottbus U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzgebirge Aue U19 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Energie Cottbus U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.19 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzgebirge Aue U19 attack 1.85 + Energie Cottbus U19 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.02

Energie Cottbus U19 attack 1.44 + Erzgebirge Aue U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Erzgebirge Aue U19 scores more
49%
level
22%
Energie Cottbus U19 scores more
30%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Erzgebirge Aue U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Erzgebirge
Energie
P. Hauck
Manager: P. Hauck
K. Alain
Manager: K. Alain

Erzgebirge Aue U19 0 – 1 Energie Cottbus U19

Energie Cottbus U19 beat Erzgebirge Aue U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on December 6, 2025.

The match was played at Erzgebirgsstadion in Aue.