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Energie Cottbus U19 vs Erzgebirge Aue U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Energie Cottbus U19
Energie Cottbus U19
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Erzgebirge Aue U19
Erzgebirge Aue U19
F. Schubart 90' (pen), 61'
F. Balg 65'
Ahmad Badran 49'
E. Kracht 45', 25', 6'
M. Ghopo 22'
9/20/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 7Stadion an der Lipezker Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Energie Cottbus U1949%
×Draw22%
Erzgebirge Aue U1930%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Energie Cottbus U19
2.02
Erzgebirge Aue U19
1.54

Energie Cottbus U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 26 away

creates per match

Energie Cottbus U19
1.80
Erzgebirge Aue U19
1.42

allows per match

Energie Cottbus U19
1.66
Erzgebirge Aue U19
2.23

finishing

Energie Cottbus U19+0.00on par
Erzgebirge Aue U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie Cottbus U19 ↓

Erzgebirge Aue U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Energie Cottbus U19 or draw
70%
Energie Cottbus U19 or Erzgebirge Aue U19
78%
Draw or Erzgebirge Aue U19
51%

Winning margin

Energie Cottbus U19 wins by 2+
28%
Erzgebirge Aue U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Energie Cottbus U19 1+ goals
87%
Energie Cottbus U19 2+ goals
60%
Energie Cottbus U19 3+ goals
33%
Erzgebirge Aue U19 1+ goals
79%
Erzgebirge Aue U19 2+ goals
45%
Erzgebirge Aue U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Energie Cottbus U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Erzgebirge Aue U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie Cottbus U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

Erzgebirge Aue U19 away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie Cottbus U19 attack 1.80 + Erzgebirge Aue U19 defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.02

Erzgebirge Aue U19 attack 1.42 + Energie Cottbus U19 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Energie Cottbus U19 scores more
49%
level
22%
Erzgebirge Aue U19 scores more
30%

Energie Cottbus U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Energie Cottbus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
E. Kracht
22'
M. Ghopo
25'
E. Kracht
45'
E. Kracht
49'
Ahmad Badran
61'
F. Schubart
65'
F. Balg
90'
F. SchubartPenalty
Energie
Erzgebirge
K. Alain
Manager: K. Alain
P. Hauck
Manager: P. Hauck

U19 Bundesliga: Energie Cottbus U19 8–0 Erzgebirge Aue U19

Energie Cottbus U19 beat Erzgebirge Aue U19 8-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 20, 2025.

Goals: E. Kracht (6', 25', 45'), M. Ghopo (22'), Ahmad Badran (49'), F. Schubart (61', 90' pen), F. Balg (65').

The match was played at Stadion an der Lipezker Straße in Cottbus.