Erzeni Shijak 3–1 Butrinti Sarandë: Result & Stats

Erzeni Shijak

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Butrinti Sarandë

E. Ymeri 32'

F. Prengaj 10', 1'

J. Nurja 85'

4/9/2022

1st Division · Round 26Stadiumi Tofik Jashari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Erzeni Shijak49%

×Draw28%

Butrinti Sarandë23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzeni ShijakExpected goals in this matchButrinti Sarandë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.85

Erzeni Shijak

1.36

Butrinti Sarandë

0.85

Erzeni Shijak creates 60% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 17 away

1.19

creates per match

0.65

1.06

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Erzeni Shijak

1.19

Butrinti Sarandë

0.65

allows per match

Erzeni Shijak

1.06

Butrinti Sarandë

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Butrinti Sarandë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzeni Shijak ↓

Butrinti Sarandë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Erzeni Shijak or draw

77%

Erzeni Shijak or Butrinti Sarandë

72%

Draw or Butrinti Sarandë

51%

Winning margin

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+

23%

Butrinti Sarandë wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals

74%

Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals

39%

Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals

16%

Butrinti Sarandë 1+ goals

57%

Butrinti Sarandë 2+ goals

21%

Butrinti Sarandë 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)

68%

Butrinti Sarandë (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzeni Shijak at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches

Butrinti Sarandë away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.19 + Butrinti Sarandë defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Butrinti Sarandë attack 0.65 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Erzeni Shijak scores more

49%

level

28%

Butrinti Sarandë scores more

23%

Erzeni Shijak at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Erzeni Shijak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

F. Prengaj

10'

F. Prengaj

16'

Glauber← S. Barka

16'

32'

36'

36'

39'

X. Boçi← A. Xhebrahimi

46'

A. Jaupaj← A. Kolonja

54'

E. Llojaj← K. Alinani

64'

R. Nuriu← A. Avdiu

69'

D. Beci← Enck

81'

S. Zholi← X. Buxhelaj

85'

J. Nurja

Erzeni

Butrinti

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: N. Dede

39'▲X. Boçi←▼A. Xhebrahimi

64'▲R. Nuriu←▼A. Avdiu

69'▲D. Beci←▼Enck

Erzeni Shijak substitutes

BoçiNuriuBeciDeliallisiGogaMetaNeziriVelaj

Manager: A. Faslli

16'▲Glauber←▼S. Barka

16'▲X. Buxhelaj←▼F. Toma

46'▲A. Jaupaj←▼A. Kolonja

54'▲E. Llojaj←▼K. Alinani

81'▲S. Zholi←▼X. Buxhelaj

Butrinti Sarandë substitutes

GlauberBuxhelajJaupajLlojajZholiNanaj