Butrinti Sarandë 0–2 Erzeni Shijak: Result & Stats

Butrinti Sarandë

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Erzeni Shijak

11/28/2021

1st Division · Round 11Stadiumi Andon Lapa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Butrinti Sarandë46%

×Draw27%

Erzeni Shijak27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Butrinti SarandëExpected goals in this matchErzeni Shijak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.98

Butrinti Sarandë

1.36

Erzeni Shijak

0.98

Butrinti Sarandë creates 39% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 55 away

1.44

creates per match

1.15

0.81

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Butrinti Sarandë

1.44

Erzeni Shijak

1.15

allows per match

Butrinti Sarandë

0.81

Erzeni Shijak

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Butrinti Sarandë+0.00on par

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Butrinti Sarandë ↓

Erzeni Shijak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Butrinti Sarandë or draw

73%

Butrinti Sarandë or Erzeni Shijak

73%

Draw or Erzeni Shijak

54%

Winning margin

Butrinti Sarandë wins by 2+

21%

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Butrinti Sarandë 1+ goals

74%

Butrinti Sarandë 2+ goals

39%

Butrinti Sarandë 3+ goals

16%

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals

62%

Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals

26%

Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Butrinti Sarandë (draw refunded)

63%

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Butrinti Sarandë at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Erzeni Shijak away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Butrinti Sarandë attack 1.44 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.15 + Butrinti Sarandë defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Butrinti Sarandë scores more

46%

level

27%

Erzeni Shijak scores more

27%

Butrinti Sarandë at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Butrinti Sarandë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff