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Erzeni Shijak vs Apolonia Fier — 1st Division 2019

Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
2/1/20251st Division1st Division · Round 21Stadiumi Tofik Jashari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Erzeni Shijak39%
×Draw29%
Apolonia Fier33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzeni Shijak
1.18
Apolonia Fier
1.06

Erzeni Shijak creates 11% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 95 away

creates per match

Erzeni Shijak
1.19
Apolonia Fier
1.05

allows per match

Erzeni Shijak
1.06
Apolonia Fier
1.17

finishing

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par
Apolonia Fier+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzeni Shijak ↓

Apolonia Fier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Erzeni Shijak or draw
67%
Erzeni Shijak or Apolonia Fier
71%
Draw or Apolonia Fier
61%

Winning margin

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
16%
Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
69%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
33%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
12%
Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
65%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
29%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
54%
Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzeni Shijak at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches

Apolonia Fier away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.19 + Apolonia Fier defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.18

Apolonia Fier attack 1.05 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Erzeni Shijak scores more
39%
level
29%
Apolonia Fier scores more
33%

Erzeni Shijak at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Erzeni Shijak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erzeni Shijak vs Apolonia Fier

Erzeni Shijak and Apolonia Fier drew 0-0 in 1st Division on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi Tofik Jashari in Shijak.