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Apolonia Fier vs Erzeni Shijak — 1st Division 2019

Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
9/11/20211st Division1st Division · Round 1Stadiumi Loni Papuçiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Apolonia Fier49%
×Draw26%
Erzeni Shijak26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apolonia Fier
1.54
Erzeni Shijak
1.05

Apolonia Fier creates 47% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 55 away

creates per match

Apolonia Fier
1.79
Erzeni Shijak
1.15

allows per match

Apolonia Fier
0.96
Erzeni Shijak
1.29

finishing

Apolonia Fier+0.00on par
Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apolonia Fier ↓

Erzeni Shijak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Apolonia Fier or draw
74%
Apolonia Fier or Erzeni Shijak
74%
Draw or Erzeni Shijak
51%

Winning margin

Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
25%
Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
79%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
45%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
20%
Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
65%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
28%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
65%
Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apolonia Fier at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.96 · 90 matches

Erzeni Shijak away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apolonia Fier attack 1.79 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.15 + Apolonia Fier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Apolonia Fier scores more
49%
level
26%
Erzeni Shijak scores more
26%

Apolonia Fier at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Apolonia Fier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Apolonia Fier vs Erzeni Shijak

Erzeni Shijak beat Apolonia Fier 1-0 in 1st Division on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Loni Papuçiu in Fieri.