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Erbil vs Al Shorta — Iraqi League 2025

Erbil
Erbil
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
Mohammad Qasem 90+4', 32'
Zaidan Abd Al Jabar 87'
Ali Husni 74'
Hussein Ali 50'
Mohanad Ali 40'
4/21/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 23Franso Hariri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Erbil27%
×Draw25%
Al Shorta48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erbil
1.11
Al Shorta
1.57

Al Shorta creates 41% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 41 away

creates per match

Erbil
1.44
Al Shorta
1.93

allows per match

Erbil
1.22
Al Shorta
0.78

finishing

Erbil+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erbil ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Erbil or draw
52%
Erbil or Al Shorta
75%
Draw or Al Shorta
73%

Winning margin

Erbil wins by 2+
10%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Erbil 1+ goals
67%
Erbil 2+ goals
30%
Erbil 3+ goals
10%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
79%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
46%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Erbil (draw refunded)
36%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erbil at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.78 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erbil attack 1.44 + Al Shorta defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.11

Al Shorta attack 1.93 + Erbil defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Erbil scores more
27%
level
25%
Al Shorta scores more
48%

Al Shorta at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
Mohammad Qasem
40'
Mohanad Ali
50'
Hussein Ali
74'
Ali Husni
87'
Zaidan Abd Al Jabar
90+4'
Mohammad Qasem

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erbil vs Al Shorta

Al Shorta beat Erbil 4-2 in Iraqi League on April 21, 2024.

Goals: Mohammad Qasem (32', 90+4'), Mohanad Ali (40'), Hussein Ali (50'), Ali Husni (74'), Zaidan Abd Al Jabar (87').

The match was played at Franso Hariri Stadium in Erbil.