Al Shorta 4–1 Erbil: Result & Stats | Iraqi League

Al Shorta

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Erbil

Lucas 80'

Mohanad Ali 51', 47', 16'

Y. Ben Souda 67'

1/4/2025

Iraqi League · Round 12Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Al Shorta44%

×Draw26%

Erbil30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al ShortaExpected goals in this matchErbil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.13

Al Shorta

1.42

Erbil

1.13

Al Shorta creates 26% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 33 away

1.80

creates per match

1.45

0.80

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Al Shorta

1.80

Erbil

1.45

allows per match

Al Shorta

0.80

Erbil

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par

Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Erbil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw

70%

Al Shorta or Erbil

74%

Draw or Erbil

56%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+

21%

Erbil wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals

76%

Al Shorta 2+ goals

41%

Al Shorta 3+ goals

17%

Erbil 1+ goals

68%

Erbil 2+ goals

31%

Erbil 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)

59%

Erbil (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 41 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.03 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.80 + Erbil defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.42

Erbil attack 1.45 + Al Shorta defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Shorta scores more

44%

level

26%

Erbil scores more

30%

Al Shorta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

47'

51'

67'

76'

O. Jengi

80'

Lucas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff