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Erbil vs Al-Qasim — Iraqi League 2023

Erbil
Erbil
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
Ala'a Muhsen 29'
4/6/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 21Al-Madina International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Erbil48%
×Draw27%
Al-Qasim26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erbil
1.45
Al-Qasim
0.98

Erbil creates 48% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 57 away

creates per match

Erbil
1.33
Al-Qasim
0.86

allows per match

Erbil
1.09
Al-Qasim
1.56

finishing

Erbil+0.00on par
Al-Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erbil ↓

Al-Qasim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Erbil or draw
74%
Erbil or Al-Qasim
73%
Draw or Al-Qasim
52%

Winning margin

Erbil wins by 2+
24%
Al-Qasim wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Erbil 1+ goals
77%
Erbil 2+ goals
42%
Erbil 3+ goals
18%
Al-Qasim 1+ goals
62%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
26%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Erbil (draw refunded)
65%
Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erbil at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.09 · 58 matches

Al-Qasim away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.56 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erbil attack 1.33 + Al-Qasim defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Al-Qasim attack 0.86 + Erbil defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Erbil scores more
48%
level
27%
Al-Qasim scores more
26%

Erbil at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
Ala'a Muhsen
47'
A. Hashem
60'
O. J. Georgev Igor
60'
O. J. Georgev Igor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erbil 0 – 1 Al-Qasim

Al-Qasim beat Erbil 1-0 in Iraqi League on April 6, 2024.

Goals: Ala'a Muhsen (29').

The match was played at Al-Madina International Stadium in Baghdad.