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Al-Qasim vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2023

Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Erbil
Erbil
K. Abubakar 1 90+11'
Saif Rashed Hameed 58'
Hareth Hatem 47', 37'
10/24/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 4Al Kut Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Al-Qasim28%
×Draw25%
Erbil47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qasim
1.17
Erbil
1.57

Erbil creates 34% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 58 away

creates per match

Al-Qasim
0.97
Erbil
1.36

allows per match

Al-Qasim
1.78
Erbil
1.38

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw
53%
Al-Qasim or Erbil
75%
Draw or Erbil
72%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+
11%
Erbil wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals
69%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
33%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
11%
Erbil 1+ goals
79%
Erbil 2+ goals
46%
Erbil 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
38%
Erbil (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.78 · 58 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.97 + Erbil defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Erbil attack 1.36 + Al-Qasim defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al-Qasim scores more
28%
level
25%
Erbil scores more
47%

Erbil at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
Hareth Hatem
47'
Hareth Hatem
58'
Saif Rashed Hameed
90+11'
K. Abubakar 1

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Qasim vs Erbil

Al-Qasim beat Erbil 4-0 in Iraqi League on October 24, 2024.

Goals: Hareth Hatem (37', 47'), Saif Rashed Hameed (58'), K. Abubakar 1 (90+11').

The match was played at Al Kut Stadium in Al Kut.