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Erbil vs Al Karkh — Iraqi League 2025

Erbil
Erbil
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Al Karkh
Al Karkh
Rwa 4'
I. Eze 84', 77'
O. Nouri 42'
6/29/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 37Franso Hariri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Erbil37%
×Draw27%
Al Karkh35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erbil
1.25
Al Karkh
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 39 away

creates per match

Erbil
1.36
Al Karkh
1.28

allows per match

Erbil
1.15
Al Karkh
1.15

finishing

Erbil+0.00on par
Al Karkh+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erbil ↓

Al Karkh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Erbil or draw
65%
Erbil or Al Karkh
73%
Draw or Al Karkh
63%

Winning margin

Erbil wins by 2+
16%
Al Karkh wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Erbil 1+ goals
71%
Erbil 2+ goals
36%
Erbil 3+ goals
13%
Al Karkh 1+ goals
70%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
34%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Erbil (draw refunded)
51%
Al Karkh (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erbil at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.15 · 39 matches

Al Karkh away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.15 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erbil attack 1.36 + Al Karkh defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al Karkh attack 1.28 + Erbil defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Erbil scores more
37%
level
27%
Al Karkh scores more
35%

Erbil at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Rwa
42'
O. Nouri
77'
I. Eze
84'
I. Eze

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erbil 1 – 3 Al Karkh

Al Karkh beat Erbil 3-1 in Iraqi League on June 29, 2025.

Goals: Rwa (4'), O. Nouri (42'), I. Eze (77', 84').

The match was played at Franso Hariri Stadium in Erbil.