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Al Karkh vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2025

Al Karkh
Al Karkh
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Erbil
Erbil
I. Eze 71'
Omar Nori 45+4'
Evan Khaled 68'
Sefan Mansour 29', 16'
Y. Ben Souda 5'
1/19/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 15Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Al Karkh35%
×Draw26%
Erbil39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karkh
1.26
Erbil
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 41 away

creates per match

Al Karkh
1.23
Erbil
1.44

allows per match

Al Karkh
1.27
Erbil
1.29

finishing

Al Karkh+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karkh ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Karkh or draw
61%
Al Karkh or Erbil
74%
Draw or Erbil
65%

Winning margin

Al Karkh wins by 2+
15%
Erbil wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al Karkh 1+ goals
72%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
36%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
13%
Erbil 1+ goals
74%
Erbil 2+ goals
39%
Erbil 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Karkh (draw refunded)
47%
Erbil (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karkh at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 40 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.29 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karkh attack 1.23 + Erbil defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Erbil attack 1.44 + Al Karkh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Karkh scores more
35%
level
26%
Erbil scores more
39%

Erbil at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Y. Ben Souda
16'
Sefan Mansour
29'
Sefan Mansour
45+4'
Omar Nori
68'
Evan Khaled
71'
I. Eze

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Karkh 2–4 Erbil

Erbil beat Al Karkh 4-2 in Iraqi League on January 19, 2025.

Goals: Y. Ben Souda (5'), Sefan Mansour (16', 29'), Omar Nori (45+4'), Evan Khaled (68'), I. Eze (71').

The match was played at Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium in Bagdad.