Erbil 4–3 Al Kahrabaa: Result & Stats

Erbil

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Al Kahrabaa

Mustafa Qabeel 65'

Sefan Mansour 58'

C. Anderson 47'

Sherko Kareem 8'

Hussain Jassem 79'

C. Pyagbara 72'

Mohammad Zamel 39' (pen)

12/11/2024

Iraqi League · Round 11Franso Hariri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Erbil43%

×Draw28%

Al Kahrabaa29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ErbilExpected goals in this matchAl Kahrabaa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.01

Erbil

1.28

Al Kahrabaa

1.01

Erbil creates 27% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 106 away

1.30

creates per match

1.05

0.97

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Erbil

1.30

Al Kahrabaa

1.05

allows per match

Erbil

0.97

Al Kahrabaa

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erbil+0.00on par

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erbil ↓

Al Kahrabaa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Erbil or draw

71%

Erbil or Al Kahrabaa

72%

Draw or Al Kahrabaa

57%

Winning margin

Erbil wins by 2+

19%

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Erbil 1+ goals

72%

Erbil 2+ goals

37%

Erbil 3+ goals

14%

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals

64%

Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals

27%

Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Erbil (draw refunded)

59%

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erbil at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.97 · 110 matches

Al Kahrabaa away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erbil attack 1.30 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.28

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.05 + Erbil defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Erbil scores more

43%

level

28%

Al Kahrabaa scores more

29%

Erbil at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Sherko Kareem

39'

Mohammad ZamelPenalty

47'

58'

65'

72'

79'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff