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Al Kahrabaa vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2025

Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Erbil
Erbil
Evan Khaled 90+9'
Amouri Faisal 29'
Mahmoud Khalil 8' (pen)
Mohammad Qasem 90+1' (pen)
6/7/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 22Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Al Kahrabaa36%
×Draw26%
Erbil38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kahrabaa
1.29
Erbil
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 42 away

creates per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.22
Erbil
1.40

allows per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.24
Erbil
1.36

finishing

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kahrabaa ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Kahrabaa or draw
62%
Al Kahrabaa or Erbil
74%
Draw or Erbil
64%

Winning margin

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
16%
Erbil wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
72%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
37%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
14%
Erbil 1+ goals
73%
Erbil 2+ goals
38%
Erbil 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
49%
Erbil (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kahrabaa at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.22 + Erbil defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Erbil attack 1.40 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Kahrabaa scores more
36%
level
26%
Erbil scores more
38%

Erbil at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Mahmoud KhalilPenalty
29'
Amouri Faisal
90+1'
Mohammad QasemPenalty
90+9'
Evan Khaled

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Kahrabaa 3–1 Erbil

Al Kahrabaa beat Erbil 3-1 in Iraqi League on June 7, 2024.

Goals: Mahmoud Khalil (8' pen), Amouri Faisal (29'), Mohammad Qasem (90+1' pen), Evan Khaled (90+9').

The match was played at Al-Zawraa Stadium in Bagdad.