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Equatorial Guinea vs Burkina Faso — Friendlies 2026

Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guinea
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso
10/13/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Nuevo Estadio de Malabo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Equatorial Guinea40%
×Draw31%
Burkina Faso29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Equatorial Guinea
1.08
Burkina Faso
0.86

Equatorial Guinea creates 26% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 20 away

creates per match

Equatorial Guinea
0.82
Burkina Faso
0.90

allows per match

Equatorial Guinea
0.82
Burkina Faso
1.35

finishing

Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par
Burkina Faso+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Equatorial Guinea ↓

Burkina Faso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Equatorial Guinea or draw
71%
Equatorial Guinea or Burkina Faso
69%
Draw or Burkina Faso
60%

Winning margin

Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+
16%
Burkina Faso wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals
66%
Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals
29%
Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals
10%
Burkina Faso 1+ goals
58%
Burkina Faso 2+ goals
21%
Burkina Faso 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)
58%
Burkina Faso (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Equatorial Guinea at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Burkina Faso away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Equatorial Guinea attack 0.82 + Burkina Faso defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Burkina Faso attack 0.90 + Equatorial Guinea defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Equatorial Guinea scores more
40%
level
31%
Burkina Faso scores more
29%

Equatorial Guinea at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Equatorial Guinea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Equatorial Guinea 0–0 Burkina Faso

Equatorial Guinea and Burkina Faso drew 0-0 in Friendlies on October 13, 2023.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio de Malabo in Malabo.