Equatorial Guinea 0–0 Burkina Faso: Result & Stats

Equatorial Guinea

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Burkina Faso

1/21/2015

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Estadio de Bata (Bata)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Equatorial Guinea40%

×Draw31%

Burkina Faso29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Equatorial GuineaExpected goals in this matchBurkina Faso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.89

Equatorial Guinea

1.11

Burkina Faso

0.89

Equatorial Guinea creates 25% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

0.77

1.00

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Equatorial Guinea

1.00

Burkina Faso

0.77

allows per match

Equatorial Guinea

1.00

Burkina Faso

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par

Burkina Faso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Equatorial Guinea ↓

Burkina Faso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Equatorial Guinea or draw

71%

Equatorial Guinea or Burkina Faso

69%

Draw or Burkina Faso

60%

Winning margin

Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+

17%

Burkina Faso wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals

67%

Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals

30%

Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals

10%

Burkina Faso 1+ goals

59%

Burkina Faso 2+ goals

22%

Burkina Faso 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)

58%

Burkina Faso (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Equatorial Guinea at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Burkina Faso away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Equatorial Guinea attack 1.00 + Burkina Faso defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Burkina Faso attack 0.77 + Equatorial Guinea defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Equatorial Guinea scores more

40%

level

31%

Burkina Faso scores more

29%

Equatorial Guinea at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Equatorial Guinea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'

Juvenal← Ibán Salvador

81'

Iván Bolado← Kike Seno

82'

P. Nakoulma← J. Pitroipa

84'

Raúl Fabiani← Javier Balboa

Equatorial

Burkina

23

4

9

2

5

10

18

6

19

15

11

▼

1

4

16

5

10

21

18

11

▼

Balboa

8

Randy

14

▼

Seno

15

▼

Salvador

71'▲Juvenal←▼Ibán Salvador

81'▲Iván Bolado←▼Kike Seno

84'▲Raúl Fabiani←▼Javier Balboa

Equatorial Guinea substitutes

6Juvenal12Bolado9Fabiani17Dário7Belima23Mosibe22Ganet3Engonga20Angel19Charly13Embela2Evuy

82'▲P. Nakoulma←▼J. Pitroipa

Burkina Faso substitutes

22Nakoulma1Fofana3Yedan7Rouamba8Koulibaly12Guira13Bambara14Balima16Soulama20Ouédraogo21Traoré17Zongo