Épila 0–1 Barbastro: Result & Stats

Épila

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Barbastro

Arturo Peralta 14'

11/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 13Estadio La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Épila37%

×Draw28%

Barbastro35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÉpilaExpected goals in this matchBarbastro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.14

Épila

1.19

Barbastro

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 59 away

1.20

creates per match

1.51

0.77

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Épila

1.20

Barbastro

1.51

allows per match

Épila

0.77

Barbastro

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Épila+0.00on par

Barbastro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Épila ↓

Barbastro →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Épila or draw

65%

Épila or Barbastro

72%

Draw or Barbastro

63%

Winning margin

Épila wins by 2+

16%

Barbastro wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Épila 1+ goals

70%

Épila 2+ goals

33%

Épila 3+ goals

12%

Barbastro 1+ goals

68%

Barbastro 2+ goals

32%

Barbastro 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Épila (draw refunded)

52%

Barbastro (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Épila at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.77 · 100 matches

Barbastro away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Épila attack 1.20 + Barbastro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Barbastro attack 1.51 + Épila defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Épila scores more

37%

level

28%

Barbastro scores more

35%

Épila at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Épila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Arturo Peralta

46'

Diego Crespo← Jesús Campo

46'

Daniel Losfablos← Jorge Cofrades

53'

Óscar Valero← Magallón

67'

Jorge Ramos← Francisco Blasco

71'

Luis Costa← Jorge Álvarez

73'

Javier Tudela← Rafinha

80'

Gorka Ojeda← Oscar Pérez

Épila

Barbastro

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Juan Gonzalez

46'▲Diego Crespo←▼Jesús Campo

46'▲Daniel Losfablos←▼Jorge Cofrades

53'▲Óscar Valero←▼Magallón

71'▲Luis Costa←▼Jorge Álvarez

Épila substitutes

CrespoLosfablosValeroCosta

Manager: Ricardo Gil

67'▲Jorge Ramos←▼Francisco Blasco

73'▲Javier Tudela←▼Rafinha

80'▲Gorka Ojeda←▼Oscar Pérez

Barbastro substitutes

RamosTudelaOjeda

Match Recap: Épila vs Barbastro

Barbastro beat Épila 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on November 28, 2021.

Goals: Arturo Peralta (14').

The match was played at Estadio La Huerta in Épila.

Épila vs Barbastro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Épila vs Barbastro