Barbastro 2–2 Épila: Result & Stats

Barbastro

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Épila

Jaime Reques 78'

S. Sidibe 61'

Óscar Caro 50'

Rafinha 40'

2/19/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 22Estadio Municipal de Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Barbastro38%

×Draw31%

Épila31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarbastroExpected goals in this matchÉpila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.91

Barbastro

1.04

Épila

0.91

Barbastro creates 14% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 99 away

1.02

creates per match

1.16

0.65

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Barbastro

1.02

Épila

1.16

allows per match

Barbastro

0.65

Épila

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barbastro+0.00on par

Épila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbastro ↓

Épila →

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Barbastro or draw

69%

Barbastro or Épila

69%

Draw or Épila

62%

Winning margin

Barbastro wins by 2+

15%

Épila wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Barbastro 1+ goals

65%

Barbastro 2+ goals

28%

Barbastro 3+ goals

Épila 1+ goals

60%

Épila 2+ goals

23%

Épila 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Barbastro (draw refunded)

55%

Épila (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barbastro at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.65 · 60 matches

Épila away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barbastro attack 1.02 + Épila defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Épila attack 1.16 + Barbastro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Barbastro scores more

38%

level

31%

Épila scores more

31%

Barbastro at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Barbastro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Rafinha

50'

Óscar Caro

56'

Aaron Bocardo← Hugo Bautista

61'

S. Sidibe

65'

Jaime Reques← Oscar Pérez

78'

Jaime Reques

81'

Juan Solana← M. Sempé

85'

Miguel Manau← Óscar Caro

87'

Edu Vicente← Samuel Cardo

89'

Ivan← Rafinha

Barbastro

Épila

▼

⚽

▼

Rafinha

Ruiz

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Josete

56'▲Aaron Bocardo←▼Hugo Bautista

65'▲Jaime Reques←▼Oscar Pérez

81'▲Juan Solana←▼M. Sempé

Barbastro substitutes

BocardoRequesSolana

Manager: Rubén Zapater

85'▲Miguel Manau←▼Óscar Caro

87'▲Edu Vicente←▼Samuel Cardo

89'▲Ivan←▼Rafinha

Épila substitutes

ManauVicenteIvan

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Barbastro 2–2 Épila

Barbastro and Épila drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 19, 2023.

Goals: Rafinha (40'), Óscar Caro (50'), S. Sidibe (61'), Jaime Reques (78').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Deportes in Barbastro.

Barbastro vs Épila — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Barbastro 2–2 Épila