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Enyimba vs Al Hilal Omdurman — CAF Champions League 2019

Enyimba
Enyimba
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
9/15/2019CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st RoundEnyimba International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Enyimba55%
×Draw28%
Al Hilal Omdurman16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enyimba
1.34
Al Hilal Omdurman
0.59

Enyimba creates 127% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 36 away

creates per match

Enyimba
1.60
Al Hilal Omdurman
0.78

allows per match

Enyimba
0.40
Al Hilal Omdurman
1.08

finishing

Enyimba+0.00on par
Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enyimba ↓

Al Hilal Omdurman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Enyimba or draw
84%
Enyimba or Al Hilal Omdurman
72%
Draw or Al Hilal Omdurman
45%

Winning margin

Enyimba wins by 2+
27%
Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Enyimba 1+ goals
74%
Enyimba 2+ goals
39%
Enyimba 3+ goals
15%
Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
45%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
12%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Enyimba (draw refunded)
77%
Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enyimba at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Al Hilal Omdurman away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enyimba attack 1.60 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.34

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 0.78 + Enyimba defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Enyimba scores more
55%
level
28%
Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
16%

Enyimba at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Enyimba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Enyimba 0–0 Al Hilal Omdurman

Enyimba and Al Hilal Omdurman drew 0-0 in CAF Champions League on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Enyimba International Stadium in Aba.