Al Hilal Omdurman 1–0 Enyimba: Result & Stats

Al Hilal Omdurman

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Enyimba

Mohamed Eldai 48'

9/29/2019

CAF Champions League · 1st RoundAl-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman55%

×Draw27%

Enyimba18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Hilal OmdurmanExpected goals in this matchEnyimba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.71

Al Hilal Omdurman

1.44

Enyimba

0.71

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 103% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 5 away

1.08

creates per match

0.80

0.61

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman

1.08

Enyimba

0.80

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman

0.61

Enyimba

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Enyimba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Enyimba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw

82%

Al Hilal Omdurman or Enyimba

73%

Draw or Enyimba

45%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+

28%

Enyimba wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals

76%

Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals

42%

Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals

18%

Enyimba 1+ goals

51%

Enyimba 2+ goals

16%

Enyimba 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)

75%

Enyimba (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.61 · 36 matches

Enyimba away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 1.08 + Enyimba defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.44

Enyimba attack 0.80 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more

55%

level

27%

Enyimba scores more

18%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

Mohamed Eldai

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff