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Envigado vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2018

Envigado
Envigado
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
3/20/2022Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 11Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 154+ matches

Envigado43%
×Draw28%
Internacional de Bogota29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Envigado
1.27
Internacional de Bogota
1.00

Envigado creates 27% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 171 away

creates per match

Envigado
1.12
Internacional de Bogota
0.90

allows per match

Envigado
1.09
Internacional de Bogota
1.41

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par
Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Envigado or draw
71%
Envigado or Internacional de Bogota
72%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
57%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+
19%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals
72%
Envigado 2+ goals
36%
Envigado 3+ goals
14%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
63%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
26%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)
59%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.09 · 154 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 171 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 1.12 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.90 + Envigado defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Envigado scores more
43%
level
28%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
29%

Envigado at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Envigado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Envigado vs Internacional de Bogota

Envigado and Internacional de Bogota drew 1-1 in Primera A on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Sur in Envigado.