Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Envigado vs Bucaramanga — Primera A 2018

Envigado
Envigado
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
10/5/2024Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 13Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 154+ matches

Envigado40%
×Draw29%
Bucaramanga31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Envigado
1.16
Bucaramanga
0.98

Envigado creates 18% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 168 away

creates per match

Envigado
1.12
Bucaramanga
0.86

allows per match

Envigado
1.09
Bucaramanga
1.20

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par
Bucaramanga+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

Bucaramanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Envigado or draw
69%
Envigado or Bucaramanga
71%
Draw or Bucaramanga
60%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+
17%
Bucaramanga wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals
69%
Envigado 2+ goals
32%
Envigado 3+ goals
11%
Bucaramanga 1+ goals
62%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
26%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)
56%
Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.09 · 154 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.20 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 1.12 + Bucaramanga defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Bucaramanga attack 0.86 + Envigado defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Envigado scores more
40%
level
29%
Bucaramanga scores more
31%

Envigado at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Envigado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Envigado 0–0 Bucaramanga

Envigado and Bucaramanga drew 0-0 in Primera A on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Sur in Envigado.