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Bucaramanga vs Envigado — Primera A 2018

Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Envigado
Envigado
3/24/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 13Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 152+ matches

Bucaramanga49%
×Draw28%
Envigado23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucaramanga
1.38
Envigado
0.85

Bucaramanga creates 62% more chances

Season form · 170 home / 152 away

creates per match

Bucaramanga
1.38
Envigado
0.76

allows per match

Bucaramanga
0.95
Envigado
1.39

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.00on par
Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Envigado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw
77%
Bucaramanga or Envigado
72%
Draw or Envigado
51%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+
24%
Envigado wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals
75%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
40%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
16%
Envigado 1+ goals
57%
Envigado 2+ goals
21%
Envigado 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
68%
Envigado (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.95 · 170 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.38 + Envigado defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Envigado attack 0.76 + Bucaramanga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bucaramanga scores more
49%
level
28%
Envigado scores more
23%

Bucaramanga at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bucaramanga vs Envigado

Bucaramanga beat Envigado 3-1 in Primera A on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso López in Bucaramanga.