Envigado 0–1 Atletico Nacional: Result & Stats

Envigado

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Nacional

P. Ceppelini 7'

3/30/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 14Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 152+ matches

Envigado34%

×Draw29%

Atletico Nacional37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnvigadoExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.16

Envigado

1.10

Atletico Nacional

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 152 home / 193 away

1.11

creates per match

1.23

1.09

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Envigado

1.11

Atletico Nacional

1.23

allows per match

Envigado

1.09

Atletico Nacional

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Envigado or draw

63%

Envigado or Atletico Nacional

71%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

66%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+

14%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals

67%

Envigado 2+ goals

30%

Envigado 3+ goals

10%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

69%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

32%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)

48%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.09 · 152 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.08 · 193 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 1.11 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Atletico Nacional attack 1.23 + Envigado defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Envigado scores more

34%

level

29%

Atletico Nacional scores more

37%

Atletico Nacional at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

P. Ceppelini

Atletico Nacional · M

8.7

Match Events

7'

P. Ceppelini↳ A. Salazar

14'

Eric Ramírez

28'

Andrés Cadavid

34'

F. Charrupí← E. López

34'

R. España← J. Cuesta

38'

Yilmar Celedon

46'

S. Noreña← Y. Celedón

50'

Álvaro Angulo

53'

Rubio España

59'

Y. Perlaza← A. Salazar

59'

Jhon Duque← A. Álvarez

65'

D. Arcila← C. Arboleda

65'

E. Torres← É. Ocampo

72'

Felix Charrupí

73'

J. Asprilla← E. Ramírez

77'

N. Ramírez← F. Charrupí

79'

Bayron Garcés

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnvigadoAtletico

Overview

53%Possession47%

2Total Shots19

3Corners6

17Fouls8

Shots

2Total Shots19

0On Target7

2Off Target9

0Blocked3

0Inside Box11

2Outside Box8

Passing

53%Possession47%

394Total Passes336

305Accurate Passes273

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls8

5Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0