Atletico Nacional 2–1 Envigado: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Envigado

A. Morelos 52', 11'

S. García 43' (OG)

10/15/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 14Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Atletico Nacional57%

×Draw25%

Envigado18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.78

Atletico Nacional

1.61

Envigado

0.78

Atletico Nacional creates 106% more chances

Season form · 187 home / 149 away

1.84

creates per match

0.74

0.83

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.84

Envigado

0.74

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.83

Envigado

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

82%

Atletico Nacional or Envigado

75%

Draw or Envigado

43%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

31%

Envigado wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

80%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

48%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

22%

Envigado 1+ goals

54%

Envigado 2+ goals

18%

Envigado 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

76%

Envigado (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.83 · 187 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.39 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.84 + Envigado defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.61

Envigado attack 0.74 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

57%

level

25%

Envigado scores more

18%

Atletico Nacional at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Morelos

Atletico Nacional · F

9.0

Match Events

11'

A. Morelos

43'

S. GarcíaOwn goal

45+2'

K. Tamayo

46'

J. Cuesta← B. Garcés

52'

A. Morelos↳ S. Guzmán

58'

L. DiazGoal Disallowed - offside

67'

J. Castro

67'

E. López← A. Pérez

71'

Y. Perlaza← J. Castro

78'

D. Asprilla← M. Hinestroza

83'

J. Villa← D. Pabón

86'

D. Palacios

90+4'

K. Toscano← E. Cardona

90+4'

P. Ceppelini← A. Sarmiento

90+4'

K. Viveros← A. Morelos

90+4'

Y. Moreno← J. Aristizábal

90+1'

W. Hurtado← D. Arcila

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoEnvigado

Overview

60%Possession40%

14Total Shots9

9Corners7

9Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots9

8On Target3

5Off Target3

1Blocked3

10Inside Box3

4Outside Box6

Passing

60%Possession40%

487Total Passes334

418Accurate Passes250

86%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides4

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Envigado

Atletico Nacional beat Envigado 2-1 in Primera A on October 15, 2024.

Goals: A. Morelos (11', 52'), S. García (43' o.g.).

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.

Atletico Nacional vs Envigado — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Envigado