Enugu Rangers 1–0 Doma United: Result & Stats

Enugu Rangers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Doma United

2/12/2023

NPFL · Round 7Awka City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Enugu Rangers66%

×Draw23%

Doma United11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Enugu RangersExpected goals in this matchDoma United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.49

Enugu Rangers

1.65

Doma United

0.49

Enugu Rangers creates 237% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 28 away

1.61

creates per match

0.46

0.52

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Enugu Rangers

1.61

Doma United

0.46

allows per match

Enugu Rangers

0.52

Doma United

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Doma United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enugu Rangers ↓

Doma United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Enugu Rangers or draw

89%

Enugu Rangers or Doma United

77%

Draw or Doma United

34%

Winning margin

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+

38%

Doma United wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals

81%

Enugu Rangers 2+ goals

49%

Enugu Rangers 3+ goals

23%

Doma United 1+ goals

39%

Doma United 2+ goals

9%

Doma United 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)

86%

Doma United (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enugu Rangers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.52 · 129 matches

Doma United away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enugu Rangers attack 1.61 + Doma United defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.65

Doma United attack 0.46 + Enugu Rangers defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Enugu Rangers scores more

66%

level

23%

Doma United scores more

11%

Enugu Rangers at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Enugu Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff