Doma United 0–1 Enugu Rangers: Result & Stats

Doma United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Enugu Rangers

2/24/2024

NPFL · Round 21Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Doma United48%

×Draw33%

Enugu Rangers19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Doma UnitedExpected goals in this matchEnugu Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.55

Doma United

1.06

Enugu Rangers

0.55

Doma United creates 93% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 130 away

1.00

creates per match

0.71

0.39

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Doma United

1.00

Enugu Rangers

0.71

allows per match

Doma United

0.39

Enugu Rangers

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doma United+0.00on par

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doma United ↓

Enugu Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Doma United or draw

81%

Doma United or Enugu Rangers

67%

Draw or Enugu Rangers

52%

Winning margin

Doma United wins by 2+

20%

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Doma United 1+ goals

65%

Doma United 2+ goals

29%

Doma United 3+ goals

9%

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals

42%

Enugu Rangers 2+ goals

11%

Enugu Rangers 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Doma United (draw refunded)

72%

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doma United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.39 · 28 matches

Enugu Rangers away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doma United attack 1.00 + Enugu Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Enugu Rangers attack 0.71 + Doma United defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Doma United scores more

48%

level

33%

Enugu Rangers scores more

19%

Doma United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Doma United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff